Analyzing Changes in China's Exports to India with Customs Database

4514726-Sep-2025

The Dramatic Shift in China-India Trade

Where did all those Chinese smartphones go? If you're tracking India imports by country, You have noticed that China's shipments to India fell sharply in the first quarter of 2024—yet certain categories saw unexpected spikes. At TradeMagellan, we've decoded these shifts using China export data, revealing both risks and lucrative gaps for traders.

The Dramatic Shift in China-India Trade-trademagellan

What the Numbers Say (2024-2025)

Key findings from China–India import data:
• Electronics exports saw a sharp decline (but semiconductor equipment saw rapid growth)
• Machinery exports maintained a steady, slight increase despite political uncertainty
• Biggest dark horse: New energy vehicle parts saw a doubling of growth

Critical Insight: The "decoupling" narrative ignores nuanced opportunities in industrial inputs.

Mining the Customs Database for Gold

Most India trade data stops at surface-level trends. Smart exporters analyze:

• Port patterns: Mundra Port accounts for the majority of China's chemical imports.

• Seasonal gaps: Textile machinery orders surged by half in December.

• Chinese workarounds: China leverages re-export trade to cope with trade barriers.

TradeMagellan Advantage: Our platform flags these micro-trends with data before your competitors notice.

3 Strategies for Exporters Right Now

1.Substitute Where China RetreatsIndian toy makers gained market share as Chinese exports slowed

2.Partner with Parallel ImportersVietnamese traders bridging Chinese suppliers with Indian buyers

3.Preempt Regulatory ChangesOur customs data India showed PLA import curbs months before announcement

The Blind Spots in Public Data

Government china export data misses crucial details like:
• Actual consignee names (hidden behind clearing agents)
• True product specifications ("plastic parts" could mean anything)
• Unofficial payment terms affecting pricing

Our Fix: TradeMagellan cross-references shipping manifests with corporate registries.

Your Next Move

The China-India trade overhaul is evolving. Companies using our platform have:
• Pivoted to underserved niches (e.g., solar panel inverters)
• Negotiated better terms by proving alternative supply routes
• Avoid fines through regulatory early warning

Start Today:

1.Run a free Chinese exporter reliability check

2.Compare 2024 vs 2025 HS code flows

3.Identify 3 substitute suppliers